Comparing M vs. RS vs. AMG PowerS

So with all of the discussion on how much power the new M3/4 will have, I got bored and made a chart for us.

YearBMWAudiMercedesB/AB/M
1992282
1993282
1994282311 0.907
19953163112871.0161.101
1996316 287 1.101
1997316 306 1.033
1998316 306 1.033
1999316 306 1.033
2000 375306
20013333753490.8880.954
2002333 349 0.954
2003333 349 0.954
2004333 349 0.954
2005333 362 0.920
20063334143620.8040.920
20074144143621.0001.144
20084144144511.0000.918
2009414 451 0.918
2010414 451 0.918
2011414 451 0.918
20124144504510.9200.918

So here you have a chart 1992-2012, B/A is the ratio of horsepower the BMW had vs. the Audi, B/M BMW vs Mercedes.

So how does it all fare:

- B/A average (0.934) and B/M average (0.982) are similar. The overall comparison is 0.968.

- On average all three manufacturers jump by 40-50 hp per generation (I ignored the C34 to C55 jump since they were both W203). The smallest jump was the E36 to E46 (only 17 hp).

- Generational increase is 13.3% on average, but varies widely from 5.1% to 24.59% (st. dev. of 7.9%!)

Now why did I do this? (other than being burnt out from a 3 hour teleconference) First off, I think the M3/4 will have an increase in power. Simple marketing dictates that it MUST.

So what can we expect? Since even the E36 to E46 jump was 17 hp, I think it is safe to assume 430hp is assured. If we go by percentage increased: 435hp.

What do I think (as if you cared, since I am just some random guy with excel and too much time)? 440-450hp. I think that will be the sweet spot. It will be close enough to the RS4/5 and the C63. The next C-AMG (I am guessing they will reuse the C55 name for it), will likely have even more power but will be unlikely to be able to handle as well as a BMW.

So... ya, that was fun.

Other bits:

Generational Increases
BMW Audi Mercedes
E30-E36345.38% B4-B56420.58% C32-C43196.62%
E36-E46175.11% B5-B73910.40% C43-C554314.05%
E46-E9X8124.32% B7-B8368.70% C55-C638924.59%

Interesting trends: Audi's increases have been declining while Mercedes' have been increasing. BMW seemed to really try and play catch-up with the E9X models (with the strange coincidence in hp to the B7 RS4).